PEEKING INTO BEIJING’S CORNER

Author: Colonel Dilip Sharma (Retired)

PEEKING INTO BEIJING’S CORNER

If the pronouncements of the Chinese foreign minister Mr. Wang Yi are any indication along with the state of rampant Covid situation and of failing economy, then it can be tentatively said that China is on the back foot from its usual belligerence.

Recently in a telephone conversation with Mr Anthony Blinken, Mr Wang Yi is reported to have told his counterpart to “….stop this talk of containing China and rather work towards cooperative projects…”.

Couple this with Mr Wang Lee’s statements about India where he has reportedly said that “…China is always open to working with India if it has a sustained long term & sound growth of relationships…”.

Mr. Wang Yi has also stated words to the effect that “…China has been always for peace, talks and negotiations in the Ukraine war…”!

All these statements are a tremendous come down from the Saber-rattle that China has engaged the US & India along with other NATO allies for months since the onset of the Ukraine war until just a few weeks ago.

So, what has caused such a climb down?
The present Chinese economy and the COVID situation has left China with precious little space to continue on its planned economic trajectory, leave alone engage in any kind of forced into or self initiated wars or skirmishes.

China has realised that even starting a war or skirmishes just to divert attention of its population & opposition to the CCP within the country will spiral out of control and will wreck the Chinese economy even further for a very long time because the end of such skirmishes or war will no longer be in its hands at all, while the other side that is the US-UK and their allies will benefit from such aggression as they seem to be doing in the Ukrainian war.

The Chinese strategy seems to be to put all issues like the Taiwan, South China Sea and the Tibetan Plateau (I would like to call it that rather than and Indo-Chinese conflict) on the back burner for the present and look for an opportune time to bring them up again later, while continuing to build infrastructure and defences as well as offensive capabilities in the areas of concern as such as in opposite Arunachal-Pradesh and Ladakh as well as Central and Southern Tibet; similar activity seems to have been continuing opposite Taiwan and Vietnam apart from China dealing with the South-China-Sea, Pacific and Indian Ocean Island states diplomatically for the same intent.
American strategy to keep all sides guessing and benefit from all disruptions of existing order helps its own economy develop through ‘Black-Operation-Contracts’, sale of Arms & Ammunition etc military hardware & software to areas of conflict is its most important arsenal, that seems to have forced China into it’s present rethink apart from its own failings within its borders.

On the whole while the ante has been hiked, there appears to be a lull before China is able to shore up its economy to back up it’s aggressive designs demonstrated in the past year.

Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam and India need to be prepared for continued Chinese belligerence in their regions for a longer period of time without an war for the immediate time being.

However a war cannot be ruled out with much higher stakes, as weaponry and arsenal keeps piling up on both sides of all these borders and as growing international attention, especially NATO, is drawn to the South-Asian and Indo-Pacific region – The region to be exploited by the West after Europe in WW-II, South & Central America through drug war fuelled insurgencies & the Arab Nations in the multitude regime change insurgencies.

Whether it will be the Chinese or the West taking these regions for a hike is unclear but yes, we have to be prepared for a ‘hike’ in international aggression.
A lot will depend on how economic slicing of the resources in this region, that is Indo-Pacific oceans and the South-China-Sea, will be managed by the kinds of Dr. Jai Shankar, Mr. Wang Yi, Mr. Antony Blinken, Mr. Sergey Lavrov etc, their principals & economic planners.

Interesting times to watch.

Colonel Dilip Sharma (Retired)
dilipksharma@hotmail.com
7719001133